通博｜運彩分析：歐賠和亞盤 (下1)

運彩實例分析

我於2008-1-4下午五點開始的澳洲聯賽紐卡斯托-阿德萊德聯比賽為例來對實力進行分析：

• 最近五場戰績主隊2勝1平2負，客隊1勝2平2負，從這點來看，主隊應該狀態相對比客隊穩定，但也並沒有絕對的狀態優勢。但從主客場的成績來看，主隊主場的表現不如客場，只獲得過兩次勝利，而客隊的客場成績還不錯，9場比賽只輸掉了兩場，因此從第一點來看，兩隊是不相上下的。

• 從歷史交手戰績來看，雙方正好打平，連最近的三場歷史交手都顯示雙方平分秋色，因此這個方面也沒有大的差異。

• 聯賽排名來看，主隊4客隊5，也是平起平坐。

• 從球隊名氣來說，中國人也許更熟悉客隊一點，但基本上來說，在澳洲球隊本來就不多的情況下，應該也沒有太大的差異。

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通過分析上面四點，我們可以很清楚的看到兩隊處在一個平分秋色的狀況下，
因此過往歷史盤口就可以成為本場比賽的重要參考依據，而最近的主隊主場盤口是亞盤平手盤，
歐賠在2.35-2.60左右。

這樣的話，本場比賽的合理盤口也應該是主隊2.35-2.60左右，而也客隊的歐賠應該在2.50-2.80之間。
 
但實際的本場比賽的盤口是主隊的賠率在2.20以下，而客隊的賠率在3.00左右，所以我們可以這樣判斷，
目前的這個歐賠的開出，對主隊更為有利，當然，實際的賽果分析還需要對亞盤進一步解析才能下結論，
在這裡我只是舉例來分析球隊的實力，讓大家瞭解整個步驟。

Lottery case analysis
I analyzed the strength of the Australian League Newcastle-Adelaide United match starting at 5
pm on
2008-1-4 as an example:
In the last five games, the home team has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, and the away team has 1
win, 2 draws
and 2 losses.

From this point of view, the home team should be in a relatively stable state than the away
team, but there is no
absolute state advantage.

However, judging from the home and away results, the home team’s performance at home is not as
good as the away
game and only won twice, while the away team’s away results are not bad, with only two losses in
9 games, so
from the first point of view, two The team is comparable.

Judging from the historical battle record, the two sides happened to be tied, and even the last
three historical
battles showed that the two sides were evenly divided, so there is no big difference in this
aspect.
In terms of league rankings, the home team is 4 and the away team is 5, which is also on par.
In terms of team reputation, the Chinese may be more familiar with the visiting team, but
basically, there
should not be much difference when there are not many Australian teams.
By analyzing the above four points, we can clearly see that the two teams are in an evenly
divided
situation.
Therefore, the historical handicap in the past can be an important reference for this game, and
the most
recent home handicap for the home team is the Asian handicap.
The European compensation is around 2.35-2.60.
In this case, the reasonable handicap for this game should also be around 2.35-2.60 for the home
team, and
the European loss for the away team should be between 2.50-2.80.

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